Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 35 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 16 May 2026 at 22:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 5th strongest of the 37 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 7 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 16 at 5:01PM CDT until May 16 at 5:30PM CDT by NWS Lincoln IL
Urban PEI: 15,087 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 15 March 2026
- May 16, 2026 · score 58 · 12.0 km
- May 19, 2026 · score 34 · 19.7 km
- July 4, 2026 · score 34 · 20.1 km
How we know
6 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.88/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.4858, -88.7367 |
| Nearest City | Mount Vernon (23 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 15.1K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-16T22:01:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ba5656dfcaabd19094d6b11373b41b30 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-05-16T22:01:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-05-16T22:12:53.406Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Clay, IL; Jefferson, IL; Jefferson, IL; Wayne, IL |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 16 at 5:01PM CDT until May 16 at 5:30PM CDT by NWS Lincoln IL |
| Expires | 2026-05-16T17:30:00-05:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Lincoln IL |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 3 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ba5656dfcaabd19094d6b11373b41b30d34f0d07.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.954c3ff4f1318309e3523ff13049baaf684c9950.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f0eddcb0df57176ecfa92b5672ac4a6ce15d36a6.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | Centralia |
| Iem County | Marion |
| Iem State | IL |
| Iem Wfo | LSX |
| Iem Remark | Powerlines and trees reported down in the area. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.620_-89.370_1778968320000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1778968320000,"latitude":38.62,"longitude":-89.37},{"id":"iem_H_38.000_-88.920_1778958300000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1778958300000,"latitude":38,"longitude":-88.92},{"id":"iem_D_38.570_-89.050_1778966040000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1778966040000,"latitude":38.57,"longitude":-89.05},{"id":"iem_D_38.010_-88.920_1778958900000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1778958900000,"latitude":38.01,"longitude":-88.92},{"id":"iem_D_38.530_-89.130_1778966280000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1778966280000,"latitude":38.53,"longitude":-89.13}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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